On July 30, 2026, the international crude oil market achieved a key breakthrough. The main Brent crude futures contract hit an intraday high of $92.15/barrel, eventually closing at $91.80, up 2.3%; WTI crude futures closed at $88.70, up 2.1%. This marked the first time since October 2024 that international oil prices firmly stood above $90, breaking the nearly two-year range-bound pattern.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Soars
The direct trigger for this round of oil price increases was the renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East. On July 28, a merchant ship was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. Although no group claimed responsibility, the market's concern over Iran's involvement in the conflict intensified. As the world's most important oil transport chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz sees about 17 million barrels of crude and refined products pass through daily. Any threat of blockade is enough to ignite bullish sentiment.
In addition, internal production cut divergences within OPEC+ are widening. According to informed sources, Saudi Arabia insisted on extending voluntary cuts until the end of the year at the July 26 OPEC+ emergency meeting, while Iraq and Kazakhstan demanded increases to offset fiscal deficits. The meeting ended without result, and the market expects August OPEC+ production to be below quotas, further tightening supply.
Summer Demand Peak Combined with Inventory Declines
From the demand side, the Northern Hemisphere summer travel peak is releasing strong momentum. According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week ending July 24, U.S. crude inventories plummeted by 5.4 million barrels to 412 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of a 2 million barrel draw. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels, and jet fuel consumption increased 5.8% year-on-year, all confirming robust travel demand.
In Asia, China's June crude throughput increased 3.4% year-on-year to 15.2 million barrels per day, a record high. India's June oil consumption rose 4.1% year-on-year, driven by infrastructure and agricultural demand. Japan and South Korea, due to slow nuclear power restart, increased their dependence on fuel oil imports. S&P Global Platts expects Asia's crude demand in the third quarter to increase by 800,000 b/d from the second quarter.
It is worth noting that persistently high European natural gas prices also indirectly supported oil prices. With Russian pipeline gas flows dropping to historic lows, European countries have been forced to use more fuel oil and diesel for power generation, tightening global distillate inventories. On July 30, Asian diesel cracking margins rose to $22/barrel, the highest since 2023.
Asian Refined Product Prices Follow
The sharp rise in international benchmark crude quickly transmitted to Asian refined product markets. According to the Asian Materials Exchange Energy Real-Time Price Inquiry System:
- Singapore 92 RON gasoline FOB $89.50/barrel, up 2.8% from previous day;
- Singapore 0.5% sulfur diesel FOB $101.20/barrel, up 3.2%;
- 380CST high sulfur fuel oil Platts assessment $413.50/ton, up 2.1%;
- China Shandong independent refinery 92 RON gasoline ex-factory price 8,380 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton;
- India Mumbai gasoline retail price rose to 104.56 rupees/liter (approx. $1.26/liter), a new high for the year.
Regarding domestic refined product prices, under the current pricing mechanism, the next price adjustment window (August 9) is highly likely to trigger an increase. According to Zhuochuang Information's calculation, as of the ninth working day on July 30, the crude oil change rate is +4.8%, corresponding to an increase of about 210 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel. If implemented, 92 RON gasoline in some regions will return to the 8 yuan era.
Outlook: Short-Term Strong, Focus on Supply Variables
Multiple institutions raised their short-term oil price forecasts. In a July 29 report, Goldman Sachs raised its Q3 Brent crude average forecast by $4 to $89, and warned that if Iranian crude exports are reduced by 500,000 b/d due to tightened sanctions, oil prices could break $95. JPMorgan Chase, on the other hand, believes that OPEC+ will find it difficult to bridge internal differences before the September meeting, and the market will maintain a tight supply-demand balance.
However, bearish factors cannot be ignored. The U.S. active oil rig count has been rising for four consecutive weeks, reaching 523 in the last week of July, the highest since August 2024; shale oil production potential may limit oil price gains. In addition, concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth persist: the July Eurozone manufacturing PMI preliminary reading was 48.2, remaining in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month; China's July official manufacturing PMI was 49.8, slightly below the boom-bust line. If macro sentiment turns weak, oil prices may face a correction.
For end-users in Asia, the pressure of rising energy costs is intensifying. Refiners in South Korea, Japan, and other countries indicated they will raise August contract prices for naphtha and LPG. Analysts at Asian Materials Exchange remind that the summer peak of electricity consumption combined with fuel price increases may push up power generation costs in Southeast Asian countries, further affecting industrial electricity prices. It is recommended that energy-consuming enterprises lock in raw material costs through futures or forward contracts in a timely manner to avoid volatility risks.
As of press time, overnight trading showed Brent crude trading around $91.50, with a short-term strong trend. Investors need to closely monitor the progress of the Middle East situation, OPEC+ production cut compliance rates, and next week's EIA inventory data, as these factors will determine whether oil prices can hold above $90 and challenge previous highs.
