European gas prices surge, Asian coal strengthens
As of July 27, 2026, the Dutch TTF natural gas futures contract, Europe's benchmark, rose sharply to about 50 euros/MWh, the highest since December 2025. The increase was driven by multiple supply-side disruptions: unplanned maintenance on Norwegian pipelines, reduced Russian gas transit via Ukraine, and intensified LNG competition from Asia. Meanwhile, Asian coal prices also firmed, with Newcastle thermal coal futures for the near-month contract surpassing $150/ton, the highest since April 2026.
Multiple supply disruptions push up gas prices
Norway, Europe's second-largest gas supplier, entered its annual maintenance season for several gas fields and processing facilities in late July, with some unplanned maintenance cutting flows to Europe by about 20 million cubic meters per day. Although Norway's summer maintenance is routine, extended repair times due to aging facilities further tightened supply.
In addition, the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement expired on December 31, 2025, but some unofficial transit continues. However, due to intensified conflict in eastern Ukraine, gas flows via the Sudzha metering station fell 15% week-on-week from July 24. Markets worry the route could be fully disrupted, boosting risk premiums.
Third, strong LNG procurement competition from Asia. Japan, South Korea, and China saw soaring power demand amid summer heat, increasing spot LNG purchases, diverting cargoes from Europe. European LNG imports fell about 10% year-on-year.
Asian coal prices follow, power demand key driver
Asian coal prices rose in tandem, driven by power demand. In July 2026, the Northern Hemisphere experienced extreme heat, with temperatures exceeding 40°C in parts of India, China, Japan, and South Korea, spiking air conditioning use and coal consumption. India's coal stockpile days at power plants fell from 12 to 9, prompting some states to increase imports. Newcastle thermal coal futures for the near-month contract reached $152.3/ton on July 27, up 12% from early July.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reported its July coal benchmark price (HBA) at $138.5/ton, up 8% month-on-month but still far below 2022 peaks. Analysts note that while global coal demand is declining long-term, extreme weather and gas substitution offer strong near-term support.
Energy market transmission logic and outlook
The linkage between gas and coal prices is particularly evident in summer. As gas-fired power costs rise, some European and Asian utilities increase coal-fired generation, boosting coal demand. In Germany, coal's share of power generation rose from 18% in June to 25% in July, offsetting part of the gas shortfall.
Looking ahead, many institutions expect TTF gas prices to test 55-60 euros/MWh in August, with key variables being the timely end of Norwegian maintenance and recovery of Russian flows via Ukraine. For coal, as long as Northern Hemisphere heat persists, thermal coal prices will remain elevated but range-bound. However, rapid coal output growth in China and India may cap import price gains.
Real-time energy price tool aids decisions
Asia Raw Materials' Energy Real-time Price channel provides real-time quotes including TTF, WTI crude, Brent crude, Newcastle thermal coal, and China Shenhua external coal prices, updated minute-by-minute, helping investors, traders, and corporate procurement professionals quickly grasp market dynamics. Users can log in to Asia Raw Materials (setkh.asia) Energy Real-time Price page to see the latest quotes and historical charts.
The above summarizes major energy market developments on July 27, 2026. We will continue tracking supply changes and price fluctuations to provide firsthand information to readers.
